Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
For daily technical updates on FX: Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update or my Youtube channel Cramer's Corner YouTube
USDJPY is slowly ticking higher towards the 2.00 projection of the March correction at 155.29, as illustrated by the two vertical arrows.
However, a bullish move up to 156.36, which is the 1.382 projection of the November-December correction, should not be ruled out.
The RSI is showing positive sentiment but with minor divergence, indicating the USDJPY uptrend is getting close to exhaustion.
A close below 152 will negate the bullish scenario. A break below 153.50 and a close below the lower rising trendline is likely to be the first warning of a bearish correction scenario to play out
EURJPY is testing key resistance at around 165.35.
A daily close above, combined with a daily close on the RSI above the 60 threshold, is likely to result in a bullish move to 166-168.
If RSI is closing above both the 60 threshold and above its falling trendline, it will strengthen the bullish picture.
Failing to close above 165.35, EURJPY is stuck range-bound between 165.35-162.30.
AUDJPY is testing key resistance at 100.02. A close above is needed for further upside potential. If that scenario plays out, a bullish move to 100.81 is likely, with upside potential to 101.97.
No RSI divergence is supporting a bullish move in EURJPY, and a daily close back above 60 will confirm that picture.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.